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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still