The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives The Villans' Unlikely Title Charge
It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.